LHV Pensionifond Aktiivne III

April 2025: Trump’s rollercoaster ride

April started off poorly for markets, which were shaken by Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” and the renewed trade war. However, a subsequent pause in tariff measures and easing tensions led to a strong rebound. The S&P 500 index ended the month down 0.8% in dollar terms. The European Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.2% in euros, while emerging markets gained 1% in dollars. Latin America – particularly Mexico and Brazil – along with India led the way. China’s market declined by 4.6% in dollars. The OMX Baltic Benchmark index dropped 0.4% in euros.

Over the month, we traded the German DAX index to take advantage of the volatility and uncertainty driven by the trade war. We also exited our positions in DSV, Carlsberg and the Russell 2000 ETF. The strongest contributor to monthly performance was Fortum, which rose 6.8%, following better-than-expected quarterly results. Other positive contributors included the German MDAX ETF, up 2.85%, and our physical gold holding, which rose by 1.84%. The main detractors were our energy and energy metals holdings, which declined by 10–24%, Alibaba, down 14.6%, and gold miner Barrick Gold, which fell by approximately 5.6%. Over the past few months, we have added positions in Germany, where we see long-term potential stemming from larger government budget deficits – a development we believe could support local stock markets.

One of our major investments concluded in April when Lithuania’s Šiaulių Bankas repaid its subordinated bond. Between 2016 and 2019, we made subordinated bonds issued by local Baltic banks a key component of our portfolio. Šiaulių was the last of these investments – and now it is also the last to return capital. Over the years, the investment delivered an annual interest of 6.15%, a return that compares favourably even to most global stock market indices over the same period.

March 2025: Stable Results Despite Tariffs

Developed markets ended March in negative territory, anticipating a trade war escalation, which subsequently materialised in early April. The S&P 500 fell by 5.8% in dollar terms, while the European Euro Stoxx 50 declined by 3.8% in euro terms. The emerging markets index remained relatively unchanged, rising 0.4% in dollar terms. Its largest constituent, China, gained 2% over the month. The OMX Baltic Benchmark index rose by 1.6%.

In March, we sold our holding in Saab, increased our position in the MDAX index of German mid- and small-cap companies, and added a new position in the German firm Bechtle AG. The strongest contributors to performance were our gold-related holdings, which rose between 5% and 13%, and our European defence holding Thales, which gained around 28%. The biggest detractors were two US small- and mid-cap indices (the American Industrial Renaissance ETF and the Russell 2000 ETF), which declined between 9% and 10.5%, as well as Novo Nordisk, which fell approximately 26%. In recent months, we have added several German positions, as we see future potential supported by widening public budget deficits, which could benefit local equity markets.

One of our key direct investments is nearing completion, as Lithuania’s Šiaulių Bankas has announced the repayment of the bond held by LHV funds. The bond pays an annual interest rate of 6.15% and was part of our broader investment in subordinated bonds issued by Baltic banks – Coop, Citadele and Šiaulių. The first two have already redeemed their bonds earlier.

February 2025: Europe raising head

February was quite volatile due to Donald Trump’s inauguration. The US S&P 500 index declined by 1.4% in dollars over the month. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 3.4% in euros. The Emerging Markets Index gained 0.4% in dollars, with China’s market rising by 11.7%. The OMX Baltic Benchmark Index climbed 3.2% over the month.

In February, we reduced our gold and energy positions and exited our holding in Metso Corporation. We also added exposure to Germany’s mid-cap and small-cap index. Contributing the most to returns over the month were our position in Alibaba, which surged by approximately 44%; the European banking index fund, which gained about 13.5%; European defence company Saab, which rose by 36.3%; and Finnish energy company Fortum, which increased by 7.8%. The poorest performers which our energy holdings, which declined between 19% and 25%, and our U.S. industrial stocks, which fell between 8% and 15%. Over the past year, we have been steadily diversifying our portfolios, adding high-capital-efficiency market leaders in their niches alongside cyclical commodity companies, both in Scandinavia and the United States. Over the past month, we have also increased our exposure to Continental Europe.

We participated in the primary issuance for the European market of subordinated bonds by Luminor Bank. These perpetual bonds carry an annual interest rate of 7.375% and are callable in six years. This was also one of our portfolio’s most notable movers in February – by the end of the month, these bonds had gained nearly 2% in value in addition to accrued interest.

January 2025: The year started strong in the stock markets

The year started strong in developed markets. The US S&P 500 index ended January with a return of +2.7% in dollar terms, while the European Euro Stoxx index gained 8.1% in euros. The emerging markets index rose 1.7% in dollar terms, with its largest constituent, China, increasing by 0.6%. The OMX Baltic Benchmark index climbed 5.3% in euros over the month.

In January, we sold our position in Volkswagen stock, with no other major transactions taking place. The strongest contributors to returns were our gold positions, which rose 8–19%, and the European banks index fund, which gained around 11%. The biggest detractors were our position in Freeport-McMoRan, an energy metals company, which declined by 5.5%; logistics firm DSV, which fell by 6%; and Occidental Petroleum, which dropped by 5.6%. Over the past year, we have gradually diversified our portfolios, balancing cyclical commodity holdings with high-return-on-capital companies that are market leaders in their niches, both in Scandinavia and the United States.

In January, the private equity fund INVL announced an agreement to sell InMedica Group, Lithuania’s largest private clinic and hospital network, to Mehiläinen, Finland’s largest healthcare provider. The transaction will be finalised once it receives approval from competition authorities in both countries. InMedica serves more than 2.7 million patients annually across 89 facilities in Lithuania, Finland, Sweden, Germany and Estonia, generating over €150 million in annual revenue. Mehiläinen, with a 115-year history, and operations in Finland, Sweden, Germany and Estonia, aims to strengthen its position in the Baltic region, where the healthcare market is experiencing rapid growth.

Latvia’s Citadele Bank repaid its subordinated bond issued in 2017. The bond was listed on the stock exchange, but LHV pension funds remained an anchor investor throughout, as part of our 2016–2019 investments in subordinated bonds from local Baltic banks – Siauliu in Lithuania, Citadele in Latvia, and Coop and Bigbank in Estonia. Over this period, Baltic banks have expanded their businesses and market shares, while also developing a public market for their subordinated bonds. Pension funds earned strong interest from these and contributed to the growth of the local financial sector.

December 2024: Markets show signs of calming

Kristo Oidermaa and Romet Enok, Fund Managers

Following November’s “Trump rally”, December saw a slight pullback, with S&P 500 ending the month down 2.5% in dollar terms. By contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.9% in euro terms, while the Emerging Markets index was nearly flat, posting -0.3% in dollar terms. Among emerging markets, Brazil was the biggest decliner, but this was offset by China, which rose by 2.6% in dollar terms. The OMX Baltic Benchmark index also increased by 1.6% for the month.

In December, we added several new names to the portfolio, including ASML, Applied Industrial Technologies, Builders FirstSource, Old Dominion Freight Line and Novo Nordisk. We also increased our holdings in United Rentals and Valaris. The top contributors to returns for the month were the European banks index (+5.4%), Stora Enso (+6.8%), Metso Corporation (+7.85%) and Antero Resources (+7.2%). The largest detractors were the US industrial companies index, which fell by 10%, our gold-related positions (-6% to -12%), our energy metals holdings (-9% to -14%) and Novo Nordisk (-19%). Throughout the year, we have been steadily diversifying our portfolios, adding high-capital-efficiency companies that are market leaders in their niches across Scandinavia and the United States alongside cyclical commodity investments.

At the end of 2024, private equity funds were quite active. KJK Funds sold one of their largest investments, Don Don, a Balkan-based bakery chain, to Grupo Bimbo, a globally renowned Mexican baked-goods giant. Don Don, which began operations in 1994 in Slovenia, has steadily expanded into Croatia, Serbia, Bulgaria and several other European countries. The deal provided Grupo Bimbo with access to new markets.

In the bond portfolio, Citadele Bank announced to the stock exchange that it plans to redeem its subordinated bond issued in 2017 in January. This news fittingly concluded a year during which the fund exited several bond investments both in Estonia and across European markets.