What a mess:

CDOs Imperiled by Collapse of Iceland Banks, S&P Says (Update1)
By Shannon D. Harrington
Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Iceland's collapsed banks pose a ``substantial'' risk to collateralized debt obligations that made bets on corporate debt, according to Standard & Poor's.

Kaupthing Bank hf, Landsbanki Islands hf and Glitnir Bank hf were included in 376 CDOs worldwide, S&P said. Another 297 made bets on two of the three banks. The CDOs packaged credit-default swaps that pay investors if there is a default, and the government's placement of the banks into receivership triggered a settlement of the contracts.

Because the so-called synthetic CDOs also bet on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which filed for bankruptcy on Sept. 15, and Washington Mutual Inc., the bankrupt holding company of the largest U.S. lender to fail, the ``impact of these exposures is likely to be significant,'' S&P said in the statement yesterday.

Huvitav, kas araablased/hiinlased/jaapanlased ostavad oma SWF kaudu varsti sundmüügivara kokku - või kas enne seda langetatakse siin piisavalt intresse, et läänefirmad ostavad. Suur maailma varade ümberallokeerimine igal juhul käimas.

sundmüügivara ei pruugi tekkida kui tehakse sundoste

The Belgian government is prepared to take a stake in Kaupthing Bank to ensure that all Belgian savers at Iceland's biggest lender can get their money, financial daily De Tijd said on Thursday.

stefan, ma arvan, et see ei ole valik stiilis emb-kumb. Intresse langetatakse edasi - vaata, kus need eelmise kriisi ajal olid (USA 1 ja Euroopa 2) ning ka hiinlased sekkuvad tõepoolest ühel hetkel mängu.

Teine hea teema on muidugi see, et hiinlastel on kõvasti US T-bille. Kas nad ühel hetkel pahaseks ei saa, kui USA tegeleb hirmsa raha juurdetrükkimisega :-D Samas, mis nad teha saavad? See ei ole enam USA, vaid hiinlaste probleem.

nali vabamüürlastelt
toorainete hinnarallist teenitud raha vajas investeerimist ning selliste hindadega ei saanud ju kinnisvara ostma hakata:(

Rootsi HQ Bank ostab Rootsi Glitnir.

http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/10/16/foreign-central-banks-seek-safety-the-fed-by-contrast/#more-3895

Monetary base:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf

M2
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page6.pdf

Eesti jääb finantskriisist puutumata! HURRAA seltsimehed!

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/economists_warn_anti_bush

Anti bush merchandise tööstus kukkub kokku, muidugi tegemist onion newsiga, aga point on siiski olemas :)

Veel "delevering":

Investors sold a record $2.3 billion of high-yield, high- risk debt in the first three weeks of October because of clauses in their funds' borrowing agreements that require them to raise money when prices drop below a set level, according to Standard & Poor's. With loans plunging to a record low 66 cents on the dollar last week from 88.5 cents at the beginning of September, the threshold is increasingly being hit.

At least $50 billion of forced sales may be ahead if prices continue to slide, S&P analysts predict. The actions help explain the sudden decline in prices and highlight the obstacles faced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in his efforts to unlock credit markets. As loan prices fall, yields are soaring, raising costs for companies just as the economy slows.

``It is absolutely the beginning,'' said Lynn Tilton, founder and chief executive officer of Patriarch Partners LLC in New York, which oversees $6 billion of distressed assets. Tumbling prices don't necessarily reflect ``what's actually going on in the underlying companies, but it becomes a self- fulfilling prophecy because the increased yields prohibit the easy access to capital,'' she said.

Worst Year

As many as 80 percent of funds that invest in the $600 billion loan market use borrowed money and many of those agreements are linked to market prices, according to Michael Herzig, managing director in alternative credit strategies in New York at McDonnell Investment Management LLC.
...
Loan funds such as Deerfield's, known as market-value collateralized loan obligations, would usually borrow $3 for every $1 of equity, Herzig said. CLOs pool loans and split them into new securities with varying yields and ratings.

The funds linked their structure to the price on loans in part because they are typically stable. The debt traded at an average of more than 100 cents on the dollar in June 2007, before the credit seizure, and had never fallen below 90 cents until February, according to S&P.

``Market value CLO methodology is based on historical price volatility, which had been very low for a very long time but has recently been thrown out on its ear as the global financial system is in a massive de-leveraging,'' said Herzig, who joined McDonnell earlier this year after being co-head of Deutsche Bank AG's collateralized debt obligation unit.

`Purely Technical'

The average loan is now trading at about its historical recovery rate of 70 cents on the dollar in a default, implying the entire market would have to go bust for investors to lose money, according to S&P.

``It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know these are purely technical things that don't refer to the credit quality of companies,'' said Howard Marks, chairman of Los Angeles- based Oaktree Capital Management LLC, which manages $56 billion. ``It's the difficulty of financing investments'' that is causing pries to fall, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWNJdgrpPF_o&refer=home

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Hundreds of hedge funds will fail and policy makers may need to shut financial markets for a week or more as the crisis forces investors to dump assets, New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said.

``We've reached a situation of sheer panic,'' Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis in 2006, told a conference of hedge-fund managers in London today. ``There will be massive dumping of assets'' and ``hundreds of hedge funds are going to go bust,'' he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTHELG0dV_e8&refer=news

Küsimus nüüd, mis tuleb varem:
- intresside alandamised
-JPY tugiostud

JPY tugiOSTUD? Ütleks ikka, et JPY müük teiste valuutade toetamiseks? Või mis?

vabandust

Roger Nightingale'i arvamus CNBCs täna oli peamiselt, et kõik maailma keskpangad peaksid nullini alandama, ja seda võimalikult kiiresti.

Äkki tõepoolest oleks keskpankadel vaja saata cash-omanikele sõnumi, et cash põleb ära kui seda ei kasutata.

Huvitav, mida sisulist 0% intress selle Roger-and-over Nightmare'i arvates paremaks teeks? Taastaks rahas istuvate tegelaste usalduse finantsturgude osas? See oleks tõesti hea sõnum süsteemi stabiilsust silmas pidades: "Teie raha põleb kohe ära!"

fun
Mida kauem oodatakse, seda tõenäolisemaks muutub selline stsenaarium, ma arvan.

Huvitav oleks igal juhul vaadata mis juhtuks kui Fed ja ECB alnadas täna nullini.

alandaksid

eelmine koordineeritud intresside alandamine toimus vist kell 13 CET kui õigesti mäletan.

Kui praegune areng jätkub, siis omab varsti eraiskutest hoiustajad terve maailma. Nemad on ainukesed kes on kindlustatud. Aktsionäride aktsiad ja ettevõtete pangakontod squeezitakse nullini.

Iroonia on selles, et paar aastat tagasi tundus, et varsti omab private equity terve maailma.

Ühesõnaga, keskpangad sekuvad päris varsti jälle.

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The collapse of Iceland's three biggest banks may force sellers of credit-default swaps on the lenders to settle contracts at as much as 97 cents on the euro.

The size of the payout will be determined at auctions this week, with contracts on Landsbanki Islands hf, the nation's second-biggest bank, the first on the block tomorrow. Icelandic bank bonds are trading at 3 to 5 cents on the euro, according to Bill Blain, a broker at KNG Securities in London.

Iceland's financial regulator took control of Landsbanki, Kaupthing Bank hf and Glitnir Banki hf after they couldn't secure short-term funding last month. The seizures triggered credit- default swaps on the banks' combined 43 billion euros ($55 billion) of debt and prompted the auctions by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the first of their kind in Europe.

``Given where bonds are trading, we should expect recoveries to be close to nothing,'' said Tim Brunne, a Munich-based credit strategist at UniCredit SpA. ``As we have seen in previous auctions, recoveries have been below bond prices.''

SEBi-Enel vaja silm peal hoida, et ta neil oksjoneil hoogsalt ostma ei kukuks

Bonds caught between supply surge and deflation
By David Oakley and Michael Mackenzie

Published: November 13 2008 19:56 | Last updated: November 13 2008 19:56

For any government looking to raise money in the capital markets in the next few months, there was an ­ominous development in Germany this week.

A German 10-year bond auction failed – something more or less unheard of until this year – as cash-strapped banks and investors snubbed the government offering.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9cbf7d56-b1bc-11dd-b97a-0000779fd18c.html

Ecuador's Correa May Burn Ally Chavez in Bond Default (Update4)

``If there's a sufficient basis to say we can't pay this illegitimate debt, that's what we'll do,'' Correa said in his radio address, according to a statement posted on the government's Web site. ``That the bonds fall and the country risk rises doesn't hold the least interest for us. Here we'll act for the country and the common good.''

Investor concern has also mounted that Argentina will default for a second time this decade amid the global economic slump and rout in commodities. Argentina's benchmark 8.28 percent dollar bonds due in 2033 trade at 26.25 cents on the dollar, down from 75 cents three months ago, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=atFJnJezhoXM&refer=latin_america

Kas oleme lõpuks seal pöördepunktis, kus USD ja Treasuries hakkavad uskumatutest tippudest kukkuma, kuld, aktsiad jne tõusma...

Viimastel päevadel on 3m US-Treasuries intress olnud 0,0%. Seal oli pöördepunkt.

stefan, 3M US Treasuries tõesti 0, kuid 10 a paberi pealt saab 3,33%. See aga ei ole teps mitte proportsioonis praeguse aktsiate langusega. Ehk siis riigivõla pikem ots võib olla päris hea teema enda mõningaseks hedgemiseks...

/Ma ei usu, et ma riigivõlast räägin!/

Obama pressikonverents täna oli päris huvitav. Tundus, et tal on täitsa ükslõik mis eelarvedefitsiidiga juhtub järgmisel paaril aastal. Oluline on ainult majandus käima panna.

Suurbritannia päris tubli ka:

"The 25.6 billion-pound ($38.8 billion) package over two years will swell the budget deficit to 118 billion pounds in the 12 months through March 2010, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said today. At 8 percent of gross domestic product, the shortfall is the largest since at least 1970 and the biggest among the Group of Seven nations. " (Bloomberg)

Hakkame pihta:


Fed Commits $800 Billion More to Unfreeze Lending (Update1)

By Scott Lanman

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve took two new steps to unfreeze credit for homebuyers, consumers and small businesses, committing up to $800 billion.

The central bank will purchase as much as $600 billion in debt issued or backed by government-chartered housing-finance companies. It will also set up a $200 billion program to support consumer and small-business loans, the Fed said in statements today in Washington.

With today’s announcement, the central bank is starting to use some of the unorthodox policy tools that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke outlined as a Fed governor six years ago. Policy makers are aiming to prevent a financial collapse and stamp out the threat of deflation.

“They’re trying to put funds into the system, trying to unfreeze these markets,” said William Poole, the former St. Louis Fed president, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Clearly, the Fed and the Treasury are beginning to take a large amount of credit risk.”

The Fed will purchase up to $100 billion in direct debt of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks and up to $500 billion of mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie Mae, the statement said.

kõige halvemate uudiste tooja maailmas on stefan

veel pole kindel kuidas finantseeritakse, aga ilmselt hakatakse treasuries müüma.

Intressispreadid (riik - erasektor) on kokku varisemas lähiajal.

Ma arvan, et Euroopa Liidu riigid pidid homme alavaldama stimulansmeetmeid. Järgmisel nädalal siis suur ECB alandamine, ja kunagi ka midagi sarnast Rootsi keskpanga poolt.

Speluleeritakse et Fed juba ostab treasuruies - ühesõnaga prindib raha

"London Banker responds:
One of the interesting patterns in the events of this year is US banks using margin calls and collateral liquidations to export deflation globally. They appear to coordinate the margin calls, for example, the prime brokers MS, GS and JPM all raised margin by more than double on thousands of hedge funds on 1-2 October while they were simultaneously railroading the TARP through the House. Margin was due two weeks later, coinciding with a massive sell off in quality assets worldwide, especially gold and oil.
The result is deflation overseas much worse than in the US, particularly to emerging economies where liquidity was more concentrated in the few big players and the hedge fund/private equity funds.
As they have forced sell-offs abroad, they repatriate the margin or collateral proceeds, driving up the dollar and inflating the relative performance of US assets."
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/12/12/has-the-dollar-peaked/#more-4193

riskiraha tuleks panna puttidesse arvestusega et dow tuleb alla 8000. see on muidugi loterii pilet kuid saatanale tuleb ju võimalus anda.

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama may ask Congress next year to approve a stimulus plan of around $850 billion, an amount that has grown as the U.S. economy sinks deeper into recession, an adviser to the president-elect said.

Kui juba USA presidentidele jutt läks, siis tasub meelde tuletada, kuidas USA kolmas president Thomas Jefferson proovis vastu võidedlda erapankade tekkele. Oma kirjas rahandusministrile 1802. aastal kirjutas Jefferson järgmist:

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.


Thomas Jefferson (Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin)

Reuters: IMF head worried about lack of fiscal stimulus

LONDON (Reuters) - International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said a lack of fiscal stimulus by governments to tackle the global slowdown may make a bad 2009 even worse, according to an interview released on Sunday.
Strauss-Kahn told BBC radio that the IMF may need to cut its next economic growth forecasts, due in January, referring to "2009 as really being a bad year."
"I'm specially concerned by the fact that our forecast, already very dark ... will be even darker if not enough fiscal stimulus is implemented," he said in an interview.
The IMF has called for fiscal stimulus -- higher government spending and temporary tax cuts -- worth $120 trillion, or 2 percent of global annual economic output, to fill the gap caused by slumping private demand following the credit crunch.
Britain has announced fiscal stimulus worth around 1 percent of output, and despite "disturbing" level of public debt, Strauss-Kahn said more public borrowing would be the lesser of two evils.
"The question of having social unrest has been highlighted by journalists and I can understand that, but it's only part of the problem," he said. "The problem is that all the whole society is going to suffer."

Jaapan:
- Novembri eksport -27%. Väliskaubandus defisiidis.
- Intressid alandatud 0,1%-ni
- Hakatakse ostma riigivõlakirju 1400 mrd JPY kuus (varem 1200)
- Hakatakse ostma ettevõtete võlakirju
- Ostetakse pankadelt ostma aktsiaid väärtuses 20 000 mrd JPY

=> Äkki tuleb lõpuks kaua oodatud inflatsioon.

ja veel:
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan will include 2 million resident foreigners among those slated to receive cash handouts in a 2 trillion yen ($22.4 billion) economic stimulus package, Kyodo News reported.

nüüd kui palju vaba aega tekib, siis võib seda veeta Economisti lauamängu mängides: Credit Crunch

Uskumatu, kuidas isegi majandusharidusega inimesed kutsuvad seda finantskriisiks(mina sealhulgas) või krediidikriisiks.
M3e igaks juhuks pole enam tark avaldada statististilistes andmetes, seega räägime rahapakkumisest M2 kaudu. Kas see on vähenenud? Ei ole ju, kasv on kahanenud küll.
Mulle meeldiks rääkida inflatsioonist kui monetaarsest ekspansioonist, aga seda ei saa teha, sest alati võetakse aluseks CPI, ehk tarbijahinnaindeks. Monetaarne ekspansioon saab väga vabalt mööda minna sellest CPIst, tuleb lihtsalt mulle puhuda sellistes sektorites, mis ei kajastu otseselt CPIs. Kõik majandusteoreetikud on väga õnnelikud, kui inflatsioon on mõistlikuse piirides ja SKP näitab mõnusaid kasvunumbreid. Kasvunumbrid tulevad nominaalsetest näitajatest, kinnisvara ja aktsiad ja need viimased ei kajastu kuidagi tarbijahinnaindeksis.
Aktsiate kajastumine tarbijahinnaińdeksis oleks ilmselgelt vale, aga kinnisvara?
Ma arvan, et peale sellist kriisi võetakse asi tõsisemalt ette statistika osas, aga samas jälle ma ei usu sellesse eriti. Föderaalresrv , või minu pärast kogu maailma keskpangad oleksid oma ülesannetega tõenäoliselt hakkama saanud, kui nende arvutuste valemite algandmed oleksid õiged olnud. Keskpankade rahapakkumine lõi tegelikult inflatsiooni, millest majandusinimestest teoreetikutel aimugi polnud, sest CPIs need numbrid ei kajastunud. Loomulikult tuleb nüüd pauk Bernankele ootamatult. Bernanke pidi olema ju Suure Depressiooni ekspert. Aga nii Bernanke kui Friedman eksivad Suure Depressiooni osas ja Bernanke nimi jääb ajalukku seoes kaose tekitamise ja tule kustutamisega bensiiniga, kui tuli sai alguse bensiinist.
Aga miks see inflatsioon siis tähtis on? Monetaarse ekspansiooniga kaasneb inflatsioon, kui CPI seda ei kajasta, siis SKP reaalne kasv on FAKE(sest selle arvutamisel võetakse aluseks CPI). Inimesed saavad virtuaalselt rikkamaks. See on globaalne probleem praegu, õnneks oli inflatsioon Eestis kõrgem viimastel aastatel arenenud riikidest. Aga miks õnneks, Eestis ju ka ei arvestata tarbijahinnaindeksisse kinnisvarahindasid näiteks? Minumeelest näitab see seda, et tasaklaalutus Eesti majanduses pole siiski nii suur ja Eesti majandus reageeris sellisele raha ülepakkumisele pisut adekvaatsemalt. Vaevalt et meil muidu oleks näiteks juust paljudes poodides kallim, kui soomlaste poodides, kes on meist tegelikult palju rikkamad. Nüüd tuleme maa peale tagasi ja nendime, et nii kinnisvara kui juust ja paljud teised hüvised peavad meil odavnema võrreldes soomlastega.
Kas tuleb pankrotilaine? Muidugi tuleb, kuidas sa muidu ära seletad töölisele või ärimehele, et oled end täissöönud ja laisk, ta solvub ju.

Kristjan, pikk jutt, aga ei ühtegi pointi. Ehk ei tule välja, mille üle sa vaidled, mis sulle ei meeldi...
Kinnisvara on CPIs sees, aga seda eluasemekuludena. Ehk eestlasele kõlab küll uskumatult, aga korterit saab ka üürida. See, et kv hinnatõusuga üürihinnad nii palju kaasa ei tulnud, on tavainimesele ju hea ja oli märk mullist.

Teaduslikult on väga kõrgel tasemel juba ära vaieldud küsimus, et kas varade hindu peab otseselt CPIs kajastama või mitte. Mulle tundub, et vaevalt sa suudad tuua uusi argumente.

Ehk senikaua kuni pidu jätkus oli tavainimese jaoks ju väga tore, et monetaarekspansioon ei toonud kaasa võrdväärset CPI tõusu

diskleimer, mitte et ma nüüd CPI-d väga fännaks ja tõsiselt võtaks...

Ei olnud ühtegi pointi, no selge Aatom, sa oled "retarded", seda teadsuslikku varade hinnna vaidlust ma tahks lausa kuulda, mitte, et ma neid enne kuulnud poleks, aga ikkagi. CPI ei ole monetaarne ekspansioon, ega vastupidi, mulle jääb arusaamatuks, millest sa aru ei saanud. Ja veel, seleta millise statistlise muutuja kaudu on kajastatud eluasemekuludud CPIs? Tänan.

see majanduskriis on Jumala tekitatud , selleks , et patust maailma päästa veel hullemate asjade eest. LÕPP ON VÄGA VÄGA LÄHEDAL , ja te ei arvagi , millal see tuleb ( minuga on sama lugu , ainult ma tunnen Jumalat ,tänu kellele on mu nimi eluraamatus ( see raamat , kus on õigeks mõistetud)
SAAGE NÄGIJATEKS EHK LASKE JEESUSEL KRISTUSEL ENNAST VALGUSTADA! Kui teil Jeesust ei ole , siis ei ole teil midagi. hüüdge appi Jeesust , Tema päästab , mitte tulevane maailmavalitseja , kes mõneks ajaks ``teeb rahu ( koondab valitsuse tegelikult enda kätte, inimesed peavad siis ostuks , müügiks endale laskma endale kiibi panna , mis tagab selle , et te ennast päriselt enam ei kontrolli( seda teevad sell saataniliku süsteemi arvutid, programmeerijad, programmid. ( võibolla te ei usu mind , et selline asi on võimalik , kui see on ( stimuleerides teatud ajupiirkondi, ( see jätab küll inimesele teadvuse, kuid mitte võimalust ise enda elu kontrollida)).`` ja siis tuleb äkitselt langus ja paranemist ei ole (üksiti maailma majandus kukub täielikult kokku, kulla väärtus langeb kohutavalt ( on siis kuskil kahesaja krooni kanti, kõik langeb nii , et igaüks püüab ennast päästa,( kõik on varemetes, maailma majandusest, ja pärast ka linnadest on alles suitsevad tukid , klaas, udu, (tuumasõda, tuhanded tuumaraketid tabavad USA -d ) .oi see on hirmus teie jaks siis , kui te seda kasvõi unes näeksite raputaks see teid hingepõhjani.

Koitp2rn, sul kiilub Shift-klahv millegipärast aeg-ajalt kinni ja kirjavahemärgid kukuvad sinna kuhu jumal juhatab (või siis jällegi ei juhata). Samas saan aru, et mees, kelle nimi on eluraamatus (muide, siit tärkas mul äriidee: sellesinast raamatut kirjastama hakata), võib s*ttuda interpunktuatsioonile. Küsimus laiale ringile: kuhu raamatusse tuleks oma nimi saada, et ühekorraga s*ttuda nii liikluseeskirjale kui ka asjaõigusseadustikule?

Koitp2rn,mida suitsetad? Tundub hea kraam olevat.

siim,
see on deliirium, koit pole veel aastavahetuse tsüklist välja saanud